Ballpark Lab

Life After the 30% Solar Tax Credit

The federal residential solar credit (Section 25D) expired on December 31, 2025. For a cash buyer it's now worth $0 — which adds a median of ~3.4 years to solar payback. Toggle between the old credit and the 2026 reality, then click your state.

Cash solar payback · 2026 (no federal credit)
Alaska: 12.7 yrAlabama: 11.2 yrArkansas: 12.4 yrArizona: 12.7 yrCalifornia: 20.8 yrColorado: 11.3 yrConnecticut: 9.0 yrWashington, DC: 13.3 yrDelaware: 13.0 yrFlorida: 10.9 yrGeorgia: 11.7 yrHawaii: 10.8 yrIowa: 13.9 yrIdaho: 14.3 yrIllinois: 12.3 yrIndiana: 15.5 yrKansas: 11.9 yrKentucky: 17.3 yrLouisiana: 12.8 yrMassachusetts: 8.5 yrMaryland: 11.8 yrMaine: 9.6 yrMichigan: 17.1 yrMinnesota: 13.7 yrMissouri: 13.2 yrMississippi: 13.8 yrMontana: 14.9 yrNorth Carolina: 14.2 yrNorth Dakota: 14.9 yrNebraska: 13.4 yrNew Hampshire: 10.4 yrNew Jersey: 12.5 yrNew Mexico: 10.0 yrNevada: 12.7 yrNew York: 10.1 yrOhio: 13.8 yrOklahoma: 13.4 yrOregon: 15.6 yrPennsylvania: 12.5 yrRhode Island: 9.0 yrSouth Carolina: 11.9 yrSouth Dakota: 13.4 yrTennessee: 16.6 yrTexas: 9.5 yrUtah: 15.9 yrVirginia: 12.9 yrVermont: 11.6 yrWashington: 18.7 yrWisconsin: 13.0 yrWest Virginia: 13.8 yrWyoming: 13.8 yr
Cash payback
  • Under 8 yr
  • 8–10 yr
  • 10–12 yr
  • 12–15 yr
  • 15+ yr / never

Frequently asked questions

What happened to the solar tax credit in 2026?
The 30% federal Residential Clean Energy Credit (Section 25D) expired on December 31, 2025. For a cash or loan purchase placed in service in 2026 or later, the federal credit is $0 — so the net cost now equals the gross cost.
How much longer is solar payback without the credit?
Losing 30% of the system cost typically adds roughly 3–5 years to a cash payback, depending on your electricity rate, sun, and net-metering rules. In high-rate, sunny states solar still pays off; in low-rate or low-sun states the math is now much tighter.
Is there any way to still get the credit in 2026?
Not for owners. But a lease or PPA provider owns the system and can claim the commercial credit (Section 48E), which it may pass through as a lower rate — so $0-down third-party offers are more common now.

Payback for a $150/mo cash purchase · data updated June 30, 2026