HVAC Cost Calculator
A system's price is mostly equipment size times an installed rate that swings with system type — a ducted heat pump runs about $8k – $16k, AC + gas furnace $10k – $20k, a ductless mini-split $9k – $17k— then efficiency tier, ductwork condition, and your state's labor market nudge it. This estimator sizes the load Manual-J-style from your square footage and climate, prices all three system types side by side, and shows the BTUs, tons, and zones behind the number. Last updated July 10, 2026.
Estimated total
$9,073–$18,620
Heat pump · 5 tons
Low $9kMost likely ~$13,253High $19k
$9k – $19k · $7 per sq ft of home
How we sized it
- Cooling load: 60,000 BTU → 5 tons
- Heating load: 50,000 BTU
Confidencehigh
Material takeoff
- Cooling capacity
- 5 tons
Cost breakdown
- Ducted heat pump (SEER2 ~15.2, installed)
- $9k – $18k
- Old-system removal & disposal
- $300 – $800
- Mechanical permit allowance
- $250 – $800
- Total
- $9k – $19k
- Most likely
- $13,253
- Cooling load ≈ 2,000 sq ft × 30 BTU/sq ft for a hot-sun climate, ×1.00 for insulation, age, ceilings, windows, and sun; heating load uses 25 BTU/sq ft.
- This is a screening estimate, not an ACCA Manual J — a contractor must run a room-by-room load calculation before install.
- "standard" tier ≈ SEER2 ~15.2 cooling / 80% AFUE heating.
- Excludes gas-line work, flue relining, asbestos abatement, and structural chases or returns for new ducts.
- Replacing an HVAC system in Texas needs a mechanical permit (usually pulled by the contractor); refrigerant work requires an EPA 608-certified tech, and many inspectors ask for a load calculation on heat pump or furnace swaps.
Operating costs
≈ $1,012/yr to run
A heat pump would run ≈ $1,012/yr here vs ≈ $1,086/yr for a gas furnace + AC. — about $74/yr less.
Electricity 15.8¢/kWh · gas $2.16/therm — U.S. EIA, 12-month average through April 2026. EFLH screening estimate, not a utility-bill prediction.
Certified models
| Brand | Model | SEER2 | HSPF2 | COP@5°F | Refrigerant | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECOTEMP | W4H5S60*K*AAA* | 15.2 | 8.1 | — | R-410A | |
| Grandaire | W4H5S60*K*AAA* | 15.2 | 8.1 | — | R-410A | |
| Fujitsu | FOP1560TJAZNA | 15.2 | 8.1 | 2.6 | R-410A | Cold-climate |
| MAINLINE | MLP15AZ60AJ2N | 15.2 | 8.1 | 2.6 | R-410A | Cold-climate |
| Rheem | RP15AZ60AJ2N | 15.2 | 8.1 | — | R-410A |
Your standard tier (SEER2 ~15.2) sits around the bottom 10% of all certified units.
ENERGY STAR certified products data, updated July 19, 2026. Model availability varies by region — confirm exact matches with your installer.
Compare systems
- Heat pumpSelected
- $9k – $19k
- AC + gas furnace
- $11k – $22k
- Ductless mini-split
- $9k – $16k
- AC only
- $8k – $15k
- Furnace only
- $4k – $8k
The same home in each system — same size, climate, ductwork, and state.
iBallpark estimate for planning, not a bid. Sizing is a screening calculation from your square footage and climate — a contractor must run an ACCA Manual J load calculation before install. Excludes gas-line work, flue relining, asbestos abatement, and structural chases for new ducts. Get 3 local quotes before signing.
Data: U.S. EIA · OpenEI URDB · Google Solar · NREL PVWatts · DSIRE · IRS · ENERGY STAR · industry surveys — see all sources
How this estimate works
- The load is screened from your home, not guessed. Square footage × a climate-zone BTU factor for cooling and heating, adjusted for insulation, home age, ceiling height, window area, and sun exposure — a Manual-J-lite screening calculation, not a full room-by-room load.
- Equipment sizing follows install practice. Cooling capacity snaps to the nearest residential ton size, a gas furnace is sized so its output (input size × AFUE) covers the heating load, and mini-splits price by zone count.
- Line items scale by your state's labor market. Equipment, ductwork, panel upgrade, removal, and a permit allowance price as separate lines, then your state's labor multiplier applies to the whole job.
- What's excluded: gas-line work, flue relining, asbestos abatement, and structural chases or returns for new ducts — the site-specific extras a contractor prices after a real Manual J or site visit.
Frequently asked questions
- How much does HVAC replacement cost in 2026?
- Full-system replacement (AC + gas furnace) on a typical 2,000 sq ft home runs about $10k – $20k; a ducted heat pump that replaces both runs about $8k – $16k. System type, tonnage, efficiency tier, ductwork condition, and your state's labor market all move the number within those bands.
- What size HVAC system do I need?
- The screening rule: square footage × a climate-zone BTU factor (20–30 BTU/sq ft for cooling, 25–50 for heating), adjusted for insulation, home age, ceiling height, window area, and sun exposure — then every 12,000 BTU of cooling load is 1 ton. The calculator below shows that math live from your inputs; a contractor still needs to confirm it with a room-by-room ACCA Manual J before install.
- Is a heat pump cheaper than AC plus a furnace?
- Often, yes — one heat pump replaces both boxes: about $8k – $16k installed versus $10k – $20k for a separate AC and gas furnace on the same home. In cold climates, add a cold-climate heat pump model or a dual-fuel setup with a gas furnace backup for the coldest days.
- Is there still a federal HVAC tax credit in 2026?
- No. The 25C Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (30% of cost, up to $2,000 for qualifying heat pumps) expired December 31, 2025 under OBBBA. Equipment placed in service by that date can still be claimed on a 2025 return, but nothing installed in 2026 qualifies. State HEAR/HOMES rebates and utility incentives continue in many states — check what's local to you.
- How much does ductwork add?
- Repair and sealing existing ducts runs about $800 – $3k; full replacement runs about $2k – $6k on a 2,000 sq ft home. No ducts at all? Compare a ductless mini-split — about $9k – $17k installed for a typical 3-zone home, skipping ductwork entirely.
- What's NOT in this estimate?
- Gas-line work, flue relining, asbestos abatement, structural chases for new ducts, and whatever surprises a real ACCA Manual J or a contractor's site visit turns up. Get 3 local quotes before signing.
- How much does a heat pump cost to run per year?
- The calculator below estimates it per state: it screens your cooling and heating load (EFLH — equivalent full-load hours for your climate zone), converts that to kWh and therms at your equipment's efficiency, then prices it at U.S. EIA state electricity and gas rates to show the annual operating cost alongside the upfront installed price.
Related calculators
- Solar Panel Cost Calculator — pair a heat pump with solar — see what powering it costs.
- Siding Cost Calculator — pricing the home's other big replacement project.
Wondering where these numbers come from? Read our methodology.